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Mesoscale Discussion 1527
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1527
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2020

   Areas affected...Western Nevada

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190035Z - 190200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible for the next 1
   to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Several storms have developed in western Nevada over
   the last 2 hours. While no severe reports have been observed, radar
   imagery suggests strong enough updrafts to support damaging winds
   from a few of these storms. SPC mesoanalysis seems to be
   significantly underestimating instability in the region with MLCAPE
   around 650 per 00Z REV RAOB. In addition, this sounding showed
   around 30 kts of effective shear. This combination of instability
   and shear should be sufficient for continued storm organization for
   a few more hours before the boundary layer cools and storms weaken.
   Damaging winds will be the primary threat with DCAPE of 1800 J/kg
   and lapse rates of 9 C/km from the surface to 500mb on the 00Z REV
   RAOB.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 08/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LKN...REV...

   LAT...LON   38911959 39841978 40621979 41281921 41001841 39991794
               39171852 38801900 38911959 

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Page last modified: August 19, 2020
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