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Mesoscale Discussion 1529
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest/central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060044Z - 060215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue to pose a primary
   threat of large hail this evening, although strong gusty winds will
   be possible too. Still, the severe threat is not expected to be
   organized enough to necessitate a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Aided by enhanced convergence/isentropic ascent along a
   composite cold front/outflow boundary, a cluster of strong to severe
   storms has expanded across central Kansas this evening. As the
   low-level jet further intensifies this evening, a few more cells may
   develop to the southwest, generally in the direction of Dodge City. 

   The 00Z DDC sounding sampled around 50 kt of west/southwest 500mb
   flow, which is supporting some initial supercellular evolution.
   Combined with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, instances of large hail
   appear possible. However, south/southeastward advance of the front,
   combined with some dry air and nocturnal inhibition slowing parcel
   ascent slightly, should lead to cells becoming progressively
   elevated atop the frontal surface. Therefore, the overall severe
   threat should be limited enough to preclude watch issuance.

   ..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37839907 37729982 37740033 37880034 38050014 38319984
               38789927 39499852 39709812 39739783 39719731 39529701
               39189688 38269760 37839907 

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