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Mesoscale Discussion 1541
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1541
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

   Areas affected...Parts of south central through northeast Kansas and
   adjacent southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081849Z - 082045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
   developing across the region through 4-5 PM CDT, perhaps accompanied
   by some risk for a tornado or two, or localized damaging wind gusts.
    This threat currently appears low enough that a watch probably is
   not necessary, but trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The bulk of the ongoing convective development appears
   largely supported by forcing for ascent due to low/mid-level warm
   advection, to the cool side of a convectively generated pre-frontal
   surface boundary.  This boundary generally extends along or just
   south of the Interstate 35 corridor of eastern Kansas, southwestward
   into northwestern Oklahoma.

   However, along and ahead of the leading edge of the more widespread
   rain, insolation appears to be contributing to a corridor of
   boundary layer destabilization (CAPE increasing up to 1000 J/kg. 
   This may support increasing/intensifying thunderstorm activity
   during the next few hours, as far north as a weak low on the front,
   now northwest of Fort Riley.  

   Through 21-22Z, models suggest that this low/frontal wave may slowly
   migrate northeastward into southeastern Nebraska.  Near and in close
   proximity to the southeast of this feature, beneath 30-40 kt
   south/southwesterly 850 mb flow, southeasterly near surface winds
   likely will maintain sizable low-level hodographs.  With further
   boundary layer warming and moistening, it appears possible that the
   environment may become marginally conducive to the development of
   occasional low-level mesocyclones, accompanied by at least some risk
   for a relatively short-lived tornado or two, in additional to
   localized straight-line wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/08/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38959683 39659670 40109623 40519499 39799451 38839523
               37869646 37999693 38959683 

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Page last modified: October 08, 2018
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