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Mesoscale Discussion 1546
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Maine into central and
   southern New Hampshire...southern Vermont...Massachusetts

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221718Z - 221845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts and perhaps severe
   hail may accompany the stronger storms. The isolated severe threat
   may continue into the late-afternoon hours.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively scattered thunderstorm development has been
   underway for the past couple of hours across portions of eastern New
   England, with a discrete supercell noted along the Carroll/Strafford
   County NH border. These storms are currently progressing along a
   corridor 40 knots effective bulk shear, mainly driven by speed shear
   in the 850-500 mb layer (per latest Mesoanalysis), with relatively
   straight hodographs depicted by the latest RAP forecast soundings.
   Relatively rich moisture in the sfc-850 mb layer is currently
   promoting 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, a short-term severe threat will
   continue with the Carroll/Strafford County storm until it moves
   offshore. Thereafter, any storms that can traverse the
   aforementioned region of stronger CAPE/shear overlap may also
   produce a few damaging gusts in addition to a couple severe
   hailstones over the next few hours. This includes storms developing
   in east-central New York, which are expected to progress into
   western MA and southern VT over the next couple of hours.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42117097 42037138 42007234 42087337 42497376 43277331
               44017117 43387038 42677043 42317057 42117097 

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Page last modified: August 22, 2020
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