|Mesoscale Discussion 1546|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2020
Areas affected...Portions of southern Maine into central and
southern New Hampshire...southern Vermont...Massachusetts
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221718Z - 221845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A couple instances of damaging gusts and perhaps severe
hail may accompany the stronger storms. The isolated severe threat
may continue into the late-afternoon hours.
DISCUSSION...Relatively scattered thunderstorm development has been
underway for the past couple of hours across portions of eastern New
England, with a discrete supercell noted along the Carroll/Strafford
County NH border. These storms are currently progressing along a
corridor 40 knots effective bulk shear, mainly driven by speed shear
in the 850-500 mb layer (per latest Mesoanalysis), with relatively
straight hodographs depicted by the latest RAP forecast soundings.
Relatively rich moisture in the sfc-850 mb layer is currently
promoting 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, a short-term severe threat will
continue with the Carroll/Strafford County storm until it moves
offshore. Thereafter, any storms that can traverse the
aforementioned region of stronger CAPE/shear overlap may also
produce a few damaging gusts in addition to a couple severe
hailstones over the next few hours. This includes storms developing
in east-central New York, which are expected to progress into
western MA and southern VT over the next couple of hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 42117097 42037138 42007234 42087337 42497376 43277331
44017117 43387038 42677043 42317057 42117097
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