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Mesoscale Discussion 1549
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1549
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

   Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri...northeast
   Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 402...

   Valid 091631Z - 091800Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 402 continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development expected through 2-4
   PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and localized damaging
   wind gusts.  A new watch may become necessary within the next hour
   or two.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow line of convection with embedded
   thunderstorms, within the warm sector of the developing surface low,
   continues to advance northeastward around 30-35 kt.  Activity will
   spread northeast of the watch within the next hour or two.  

   The surface low, currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border to the
   south of Wichita, continues to slowly deepen, and is forecast to
   migrate north/northeastward toward the Salina KS vicinity through
   19-21Z.  As it does, strongest southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of
   40 kt) appears likely to develop northward across much of eastern
   Kansas and adjacent western Missouri.  

   This will be accompanied by enlargement of low-level hodographs,
   particularly along a remnant convectively generated boundary that
   appears roughly aligned with the Interstate 35 corridor.  Although
   cloud cover and rain is slowing destabilization along this corridor,
   breaks in overcast coupled with further gradual boundary layer
   moistening should allow for increasing boundary layer instability
   through mid to late afternoon.  As it does, the environment may
   become increasingly conducive to the development of low-level
   mesocyclones within strengthening convection, accompanied by a risk
   for tornadoes and localized damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 10/09/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38059651 39229565 40399395 38819342 37569306 35559390
               35169520 36379581 37419638 38059651 

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