Mesoscale Discussion 1549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...western Missouri...northeast
Oklahoma and adjacent northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 402...
Valid 091631Z - 091800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 402 continues.
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development expected through 2-4
PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes and localized damaging
wind gusts. A new watch may become necessary within the next hour
DISCUSSION...A narrow line of convection with embedded
thunderstorms, within the warm sector of the developing surface low,
continues to advance northeastward around 30-35 kt. Activity will
spread northeast of the watch within the next hour or two.
The surface low, currently near the Kansas/Oklahoma border to the
south of Wichita, continues to slowly deepen, and is forecast to
migrate north/northeastward toward the Salina KS vicinity through
19-21Z. As it does, strongest southerly 850 mb flow (in excess of
40 kt) appears likely to develop northward across much of eastern
Kansas and adjacent western Missouri.
This will be accompanied by enlargement of low-level hodographs,
particularly along a remnant convectively generated boundary that
appears roughly aligned with the Interstate 35 corridor. Although
cloud cover and rain is slowing destabilization along this corridor,
breaks in overcast coupled with further gradual boundary layer
moistening should allow for increasing boundary layer instability
through mid to late afternoon. As it does, the environment may
become increasingly conducive to the development of low-level
mesocyclones within strengthening convection, accompanied by a risk
for tornadoes and localized damaging wind gusts.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38059651 39229565 40399395 38819342 37569306 35559390
35169520 36379581 37419638 38059651