|Mesoscale Discussion 1552|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020
Areas affected...Eastern NY...Southern VT...Much of NH...Far
Southwest ME...Western/Central MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 231808Z - 232015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated over the next few hours across New England. Forcing for
this activity appears to be the modest ascent attendant to a
vorticity maximum moving out of PA amid strong diurnal heating and
resulting air mass destabilization. Recent surface analysis also
placed a somewhat diffuse warm front from northern NY southeastward
to far southwest ME. Current mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE and 30 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear is now in place.
The stronger flow aloft (and resulting vertical shear) will be
displaced north of the region, but the overall environment should
still be sufficient for a few stronger, more organized updrafts
capable of damaging downburst winds. This downdraft potential could
be augmented somewhat by the steep low-level lapse rates south of
the warm front (i.e. across southern VT/NH and much of MA). An
isolated instance or two of hail is also possible.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 43747361 44037215 43887055 42437092 41927253 42287414
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