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Mesoscale Discussion 1552
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1552
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern NY...Southern VT...Much of NH...Far
   Southwest ME...Western/Central MA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231808Z - 232015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms capable of hail and/or
   damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is
   anticipated over the next few hours across New England. Forcing for
   this activity appears to be the modest ascent attendant to a
   vorticity maximum moving out of PA amid strong diurnal heating and
   resulting air mass destabilization. Recent surface analysis also
   placed a somewhat diffuse warm front from northern NY southeastward
   to far southwest ME. Current mesoanalysis indicates 1000-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE and 30 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear is now in place.
   The stronger flow aloft (and resulting vertical shear) will be
   displaced north of the region, but the overall environment should
   still be sufficient for a few stronger, more organized updrafts
   capable of damaging downburst winds. This downdraft potential could
   be augmented somewhat by the steep low-level lapse rates south of
   the warm front (i.e. across southern VT/NH and much of MA). An
   isolated instance or two of hail is also possible.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 08/23/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43747361 44037215 43887055 42437092 41927253 42287414
               42997430 43747361 

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