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Mesoscale Discussion 1557
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1557
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240646Z - 240915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A waterspout could impact beaches from Franklin County
   toward Walton County over the next few hours. However, the tornado
   threat should remain low inland, away from the immediate coast.

   DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms associated with an area of low
   level confluence on the eastern periphery of Tropical Storm Marco
   has persisted for several hours. Areas of low level rotation have
   been noted in velocity data from KTLH. VWP data shows enlarged low
   level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values from around 100-200 m2/s2.
   However, east/northeasterly low level flow is maintaining generally
   low 70s F dewpoints across the region for now. This is limiting
   surface-based instability, with SBCAPE values as high as 1000 J/kg
   possible near the immediate coast, per modified 06z TLH sounding. 
   While a waterspout moving onshore cannot be ruled out, the
   expectation is that any tornado activity will be confined to the
   immediate coast and generally be weak and short-lived. As convection
   moves inland, conditions will quickly become less favorable for
   maintenance of low level rotation and tornado activity in the
   absence of deep/richer low level dewpoints. Trends will continue to
   be monitored, but a tornado watch does not appear necessary at this
   time.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29318504 29518545 29708569 30028610 30278632 30538622
               30618571 30448487 30188440 29998427 29608431 29368446
               29288465 29318504 

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Page last modified: August 24, 2020
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