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Mesoscale Discussion 1565
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1565
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

   Areas affected...central and southern NC...southeast and
   south-central VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 111231Z - 111400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization this morning will become more
   favorable for cellular development and a corresponding increased
   risk for tornadoes.  A tornado watch will likely be needed in the
   next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows the center of tropical cyclone
   Michael over central SC as of 825am EDT.  A wide shield of heavy
   rain encompasses the northern semicircle of the weakening tropical
   system but a south-southeast to north-northwest zone of
   quasi-discrete convection is located immediately to the northeast of
   the rain shield.  It is here and to the east and southeast that
   destabilization (through advection and weak heating) will promote 
   increased potential for stronger updrafts and quasi-discrete
   supercells later this morning into the afternoon.  Forecast
   soundings from near Raleigh northeastward into southeast VA show
   hodographs enlarging with 0-1 km SRH ranging from 250-350 m2/s2 by
   15-18z.  Moderate buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) is already evident in
   the coastal plain (reference the 12z MHX raob) and will spread
   inland as temperatures rise into the upper 70s degrees F in the
   corridor from the Triangle into southeast VA.  Several tornadoes are
   possible in the vicinity of this strengthening baroclinic zone to
   the northeast of the center of Michael's circulation where the
   combination of strongest pressure falls, buoyancy, and shear
   overlap.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36157954 37427854 37657776 37627710 37307641 36887647
               36037727 35277751 34577749 34207789 34347847 34977962
               35537988 36157954 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2018
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