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Mesoscale Discussion 1566
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1566
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 AM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

   Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and into parts of central
   and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 409...

   Valid 111648Z - 111845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 409 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon
   within the northeast quadrant of T.S. Michael.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery shows the center of
   T. S. Michael over south-central North Carolina, moving northeast at
   around 15 kt.  Ahead of the center, dense cloud cover is evident
   over all but far northeast North Carolina and into eastern Virginia.
    With some heating/destabilization ongoing across this portion of
   the WW area, the tornado risk will likely be maximized across this
   area later this afternoon.

   In the shorter term, brief/weak rotation has been observed with a
   few of the northward- and northwestward-moving updrafts from eastern
   North Carolina into south-central Virginia.  This area -- just ahead
   of the more widespread/stratiform rain surrounding Michael's center
   -- will remain the focus for brief tornadoes over the next 1-2

   ..Goss.. 10/11/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34497818 35537826 36437887 36817937 37457953 37927898
               38307710 38027507 36767584 35497528 34477596 34497818 

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