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Mesoscale Discussion 1567
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1567
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 11 2018

   Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern North Carolina
   into parts of central and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 409...

   Valid 111954Z - 112200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 409 continues.

   SUMMARY...Risk for a few tornadoes continues this afternoon north
   and east of the center of T.S. Michael.

   DISCUSSION...Latest observations/imagery indicates that the
   low-level center of T. S. Michael is crossing central North Carolina
   at this time, moving in an east-northeasterly direction.  Earlier
   breaks in the cloud cover over parts of eastern
   Virginia/northeastern North Carolina have allowed some
   heating/destabilization to occur, though cloud cover has now
   overspread the entire region.  While the instability field would
   suggest that the greatest risk for tornadoes will reside over
   southeast Virginia over the next few hours within this more
   favorable thermodynamic environment, transient low-level rotation
   has been observed with several small updrafts north of Michael's
   center -- i.e. a county either side of the Virginia/North Carolina
   border, over western portions of the Tornado Watch.  Overall, as
   Michael continues moving east-northeast, risk for tornadoes -- be it
   from individual cells over eastern Virginia/northeast North Carolina
   or within the enhanced convective band just north of Michael's
   center -- will be maximized over south-central and southeast
   Virginia and possibly far northeast North Carolina over the next
   several hours.

   ..Goss.. 10/11/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35387705 35967766 36197826 36137911 35967991 36228013
               36677986 37217957 37667910 37887836 37987756 38037531
               36907590 35827558 35137617 35387705 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2018
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