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Mesoscale Discussion 1571
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1571
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

   Areas affected...North-central Pennsylvania into central New York

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

   Valid 101839Z - 102045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

   SUMMARY...Several discrete supercells in parts of central New York
   will continue to pose a tornado risk over the next 1-3 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are ongoing along a
   north-south line just east of Rochester, NY. Low-level rotation has
   occasionally increases with some of these storms. Overall, storms
   have not been overly intense, however, as only storms near Lake
   Ontario have shown higher reflectivity to above 9 km (per MRMS).
   This may be due in part to somewhat modest mid-level ascent and
   weaker mid-level lapse rates. Mid-level ascent should at least
   gradually increase through the day. Further, these storms will
   encounter increasing unstable inflow air to the east where
   temperatures have risen into the low 90s F. Some outflow from
   convection farther east is noted on visible satellite that may
   eventually impact some of this activity. Farther south into central
   Pennsylvania, convection has shown some increase in supercell
   character over the last hour. These storms will also pose a risk for
   tornadoes, though low-level shear is marginally weaker with southern

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42207547 41787597 41357710 41087807 41287826 41617806
               43017773 43357705 43437608 43207550 42777531 42207547 

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