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Mesoscale Discussion 1580
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1580
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

   Areas affected...Part of central and eastern TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 414...

   Valid 140041Z - 140145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 414 continues.

   SUMMARY...Local extension (both spatial and temporal) may be needed
   for the southwest part of WW 414 and extending southward several
   counties, as a severe-weather threat persists beyond 01Z, including
   the tornado potential.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery showed storms continuing to
   develop within the the southwest flank of a central and northeast TX
   MCS, while GOES-16 IR imagery indicated ongoing cloud-top cooling
   across this same area of the MCS.  Although the main band of storms
   appears to be located along and near the primary southward-moving
   outflow boundary, radar trends also indicated new storms developing
   in the warm sector, immediately to the south, from Burleson to
   Brazos to Madison Counties.  Objective analyses indicated
   surface-based inhibition has been increasing, given time of day
   across east TX into LA, though the environment in proximity to the
   aforementioned storms remains unstable with surface-based storms.

   Given the presence of a moisture-rich environment with moderate
   instability and effective bulk shear of 40-45 kt, embedded bowing
   structures and low-level rotation/tornado threat should persist
   until the surface-based inhibition becomes too strong.

   ..Peters/Guyer.. 10/14/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30769657 31099580 31579529 31779461 31809422 31299431
               31049470 30689489 30369556 30199614 30159656 30589670

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