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Mesoscale Discussion 1590
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1590
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

   Areas affected...North Carolina into southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251716Z - 251915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may intensify and support isolated damaging
   winds through the afternoon hours across western to central North
   Carolina and southern Virginia. Watch issuance is currently not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A broad cluster of thunderstorms has developed within
   the southern Appalachians and along a lee trough axis across western
   VA/NV over the past couple of hours. This activity has largely
   remained disorganized, likely due to weak flow observed in the KFCX,
   KMRX, and KRAX VWPs. However, increasing cloud-top heights and
   cooling cloud-top temperatures in a few cells hint at gradual
   intensification over the past 30-60 minutes. This trend will
   continue through the afternoon as warming temperatures, coupled with
   dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, boosts MLCAPE values to near
   2000-2500 J/kg with minimal inhibition. A few strong to severe
   storms are possible and may exhibit periods of semi-organized
   outflow. However, deep-layer flow is expected to remain meager
   across the region as the synoptic mid-level wave passes well to the
   north. This will limit the potential for widespread organized severe
   weather and likely mitigates the need for a watch, though isolated
   damaging wind gusts will be possible through the afternoon.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   35868317 36658153 37188073 37368009 37247925 36947824
               36377821 35567854 35117955 35118119 35158233 35388312
               35868317 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2022
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