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Mesoscale Discussion 1600
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MD 1600 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1600
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

   Areas affected...southeast Missouri into northern Arkansas and far
   western Tennessee and Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280012Z - 280245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may persist for a few hours, with locally strong to
   severe gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of vigorous convection have developed along a
   weak surface trough, and along the southern periphery of the
   stronger midlevel flow aloft. Surface analysis shows mid to upper
   70s F dewpoints and heating have contributed to MLCAPE in excess of
   3000 J/kg, with the most robust convection now over southeast MO.

   Given this high-PWAT and uncapped air mass, storms may persist for a
   few hours as they move slowly southeastward. Winds above the surface
   are forecast to increase steadily as well, aiding storm-relative
   inflow. Given only minor large-scale support and loss of heating,
   the severe risk is expected to remain localized, but trends will
   continue to be monitored for any further upscale growth along the

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 07/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36199301 36439203 36709120 36949070 37189040 37128971
               36818899 36258885 35708955 35379071 35449178 35499267
               35789311 36199301 

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