Mesoscale Discussion 1618
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...parts of AZ...southeast CA and far southern NV

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142206Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic wind gusts from 50-70 mph and small to marginally
   severe hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will be possible with
   slow-moving storms through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing near the higher
   terrain of southern CA and southeast AZ, as well as along the
   Mogollon Rim of AZ. A relatively moist air mass characterized by
   predominately mid 50s to mid 60s surface dew points in lower
   elevations is supporting a broad plume of moderate buoyancy with
   MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Convection over AZ is occurring with a
   modest east-southeasterly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that
   much of the convection will likely parallel the Rim over the next
   few hours before potentially spreading into the portion of the CO
   River along the AZ/NV border. Convection across southeast CA is
   occurring within a weakly sheared, more southerly mid-level flow
   regime, suggesting that storms will remain quasi-stationary and
   struggle to appreciably intensify beyond a downburst threat.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

   LAT...LON   34020999 32400986 31611008 31311101 31651119 33531153
               34631338 34241493 33371594 33101639 33891703 35301608
               35921521 36281415 35731329 34020999