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Mesoscale Discussion 1646
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1646
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0151 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

   Areas affected...Southeastern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522...

   Valid 201851Z - 202015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 522

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds and isolated large hail is
   spreading east-southeastward into southeastern Lower Michigan this

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDTX shows a
   northeast-southwest-oriented QLCS tracking east-southeastward at
   around 40 kt across southeastern Lower Michigan -- with additional
   supercell development immediately ahead of the line. Continued
   diurnal destabilization across the pre-convective environment
   (characterized by increasingly agitated HCRs) will support the
   maintenance of the line given around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented
   oblique to the gust front (per KDTX VWP). Severe gusts up to 70 mph
   are the main concern, though isolated large hail is possible with
   the leading supercells and where breaks in the convective line
   occur. Additionally, VWP data shows modest low-level hodograph
   curvature (around 200 m2/s2 0-2 km SRH) which could support embedded
   rotating updrafts and a non-zero tornado risk.

   ..Weinman.. 07/20/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42338480 42588447 43078386 43368364 43398359 43428322
               43428276 43268237 42858234 42378268 41838326 41738364
               41758414 41848459 41968502 42078513 42338480 

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