Mesoscale Discussion 1647
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201935Z - 202030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...KGLD radar data shows an organizing discrete
   thunderstorm along a remnant outflow boundary draped across western
   Kansas this afternoon -- where filtered diurnal heating of a moist
   air mass (upper 60s dewpoints) is contributing to moderate
   surface-based instability. While 40-50 kt of effective shear and
   modest clockwise low-level hodograph curvature will support
   intensification of the ongoing activity into an organized supercell
   capable of large hail and severe gusts, current thinking is coverage
   of storms may be too limited for a watch, but trends will be
   monitored.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38810018 38579969 38179929 37699927 37439952 37340008
               37520086 37730132 38000175 38220196 38740200 39080197
               39250174 39230130 39010066 38810018