Mesoscale Discussion 1661
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 170018Z - 170215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple instances of strong to severe wind gusts and
   marginally severe hail are possible. A watch is not currently
   expected, though convective trends will be monitored for signs of
   increasing organization.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KSGF/KLZK shows a cluster of
   storms over northern AR, generally focused along an
   east/west-oriented remnant outflow boundary. These storms are
   evolving in an environment characterized by strong to locally
   extreme surface-based instability (3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). While
   this is promoting robust updraft pulses, the most favorable
   deep-layer shear is displaced to the north of this activity (per
   regional VWP). As a result, individual updrafts have generally been
   short-lived. Nevertheless, the focused mesoscale ascent combined
   with the aforementioned buoyancy could support a couple instances of
   strong to locally severe downbursts (especially with any congealing
   cold pools) and marginally severe hail.

   With time, there is some potential for an increase in storm coverage
   and perhaps intensity along the outflow boundary -- aided by an
   approaching remnant MCV and related enhancement of vertical shear
   from the west. However, nocturnal cooling/stabilization of the
   boundary layer could tend to limit the overall severe threat.
   Convective trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

   ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35569054 35639280 35829323 36229355 36569358 36959339
               37109305 37069231 36859102 36719049 36429008 35849014
               35569054