Mesoscale Discussion 1662
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

   Valid 170019Z - 170215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Confidence is increasing in the potential for a corridor
   of wind damage across parts of far northeast Virginia into northern
   New Jersey.

   DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery trends from the past 30-60 minutes show
   steady cloud-top cooling as a broken line of convection deepens from
   far northeast VA into southeast PA and NJ. Latest VWP observations
   and upper-air analyses show somewhat weaker mid to upper-level flow
   as compared to locations further north (where an organized MCS is
   ongoing), but mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors should favor
   upscale growth in the coming hour into a somewhat more cohesive line
   of storms. Regional terminal radar imagery already shows some degree
   of cold pool amalgamation, which supports this idea. RAP
   mesoanalysis indicates that the apex of a buoyancy ridge lies
   immediately downstream of the developing line, and deep-layer wind
   shear is still sufficient (around 25-35 knots) to support some
   degree of convective organization. Consequently, the potential for a
   line of thunderstorms capable of damaging to severe winds should
   increase over the next 1-2 hours as thunderstorms continue to
   intensify.

   ..Moore.. 07/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39797707 40067621 40337553 40537515 40657478 40677434
               40497403 40237404 39917413 39667438 39387467 39147520
               38927590 38737665 38717705 38737739 38797765 38837793
               38947810 39167795 39427768 39697715 39797707