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Mesoscale Discussion 1682
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1682
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

   Areas affected...north-central and eastern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152050Z - 152245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) capable of
   pockets of wind damage are possible through the early evening.  The
   limited coverage of damaging gusts will likely preclude the need for
   a small severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite and radar imagery shows a developing
   cluster of intensifying thunderstorms straddling I-65 in
   north-central AL as of 345pm CDT.  The Birmingham 88D VAD shows
   westerly low-level flow veering to northerly and increasing into the
   25-30 kt range in the 4-6 km layer.  The mean wind will favor
   southeast storm motions with this activity moving into the
   Birmingham and Anniston areas over the next 1-2 hours.  The airmass
   has become moderately unstable with lower 90s temperatures and
   dewpoints near 70 deg F.  With 0-3 km lapse rates in excess of 8 deg
   C/km, water loading will be the primary mechanism for isolated wet

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/15/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34068754 34598592 34078532 33428534 33098625 33458743

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