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Mesoscale Discussion 1684
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern into north-central North

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152223Z - 160000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones may accompany the stronger
   storms and a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in
   northern North Dakota. A WW issuance is not expected since the
   severe threat should be sparse.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred across northeast
   McLean County, ND along a baroclinic zone, close to the center of
   weak surface low pressure. With clearing skies across central into
   western ND, stronger surface heating beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
   rates is contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer shear
   is weak, the 22Z mesoanalysis depicts a modest amount of low-level
   vertical-oriented vorticity and 125+ J/kg 0-3km CAPE near the low
   center. As such, any storms that can become established may exhibit
   multicellular or transient supercell structure. Large hail is the
   main concern with stronger storms, although any storm that can
   anchor to the baroclinic boundary may support a landspout tornado,
   especially in northern ND. Nonetheless, the severe threat should
   remain sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/15/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46990308 48290206 48910105 49070019 49059911 48769858
               48079871 47539961 47000073 46760162 46730200 46990308 

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