Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1684
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1684 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern into north-central North
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152223Z - 160000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones may accompany the stronger
   storms and a landspout tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in
   northern North Dakota. A WW issuance is not expected since the
   severe threat should be sparse.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred across northeast
   McLean County, ND along a baroclinic zone, close to the center of
   weak surface low pressure. With clearing skies across central into
   western ND, stronger surface heating beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
   rates is contributing to 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer shear
   is weak, the 22Z mesoanalysis depicts a modest amount of low-level
   vertical-oriented vorticity and 125+ J/kg 0-3km CAPE near the low
   center. As such, any storms that can become established may exhibit
   multicellular or transient supercell structure. Large hail is the
   main concern with stronger storms, although any storm that can
   anchor to the baroclinic boundary may support a landspout tornado,
   especially in northern ND. Nonetheless, the severe threat should
   remain sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Edwards.. 08/15/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46990308 48290206 48910105 49070019 49059911 48769858
               48079871 47539961 47000073 46760162 46730200 46990308 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 16, 2022
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities