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Mesoscale Discussion 1699
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1699
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast GA and extreme north FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170418Z - 170615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A low-end tornado threat will persist overnight near the
   warm front, in advance of the remnants of Sally, but a tornado watch
   does not appear necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Occasional small supercell structures have been
   observed with cellular convection forming in both the primary
   confluence band near the FL Big Bend, and along the surface warm
   front near the southeast GA coast.  The stronger wind profiles and
   associated vertical shear will tend to spread northeastward across
   GA overnight, east of the weakening surface center of tropical
   cyclone Sally.  The most favorable hodograph curvature/SRH for
   tornadic storms will be along the warm front, but surface-based
   buoyancy will remain rather weak across inland areas of south
   central/southeast GA, with the richer theta-e (surface temperatures
   and dewpoints in the mid 70s) confined to the coast.  Given the
   sub-optimal phasing of the buoyancy and vertical shear, and
   horizontal advection as the primary source for destabilization
   inland overnight, the tornado threat should remain somewhat
   limited/transient.  As such, a tornado watch does not appear
   necessary.

   ..Thompson.. 09/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31658108 30938184 30808247 30408314 30418355 31018367
               31428356 31718348 31818285 32018215 32188137 31998110
               31658108 

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