Mesoscale Discussion 1714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

   Areas affected...northwestern Minnesota and adjacent portions of
   North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262306Z - 270100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...One or two supercells may evolve through the 7-9 PM CDT
   time frame, accompanied by potential for large hail and some risk
   for a brief tornado.  This is not anticipated to require a severe
   weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air,
   a seasonably moist boundary-layer across parts of the Red River
   Valley has become characterized by CAPE on the order of 2000-3000
   J/kg.  This is generally focused within narrow corridors near the
   Red River, and immediately ahead of a weak eastward advancing cold
   front.  Although lingering mid-level inhibition has slowed
   convective development, the initiation of sustained isolated to
   widely scattered thunderstorm development appears underway.

   Subtle mid-level cooling near the southern periphery of a mid-level
   cyclone crossing the Canadian Prairies may gradually erode
   inhibition further into early evening.  However, based on the
   various model output, it remains unclear whether this will become
   supportive of a substantive increase in convective coverage.  Even
   so, given at least a narrow window for continuing inflow of
   moderately unstable air, ongoing activity probably will continue to
   intensify.  One or two supercells may eventually evolve in the
   presence of 35-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow.  Low-level
   hodographs appear modest, but a brief tornado may not be out of the
   question, in addition to a risk for large hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/26/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48439677 49859579 50169531 49399466 47809588 47819669
               48439677