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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

   Areas affected...central and northern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281956Z - 282200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few stronger thunderstorms are forecast through 5pm CDT.
    Peak gusts primarily between 40-55 mph are forecast on a localized
   basis.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and 7 km CAPPI imagery show thunderstorms
   intensifying southwest of Tuscaloosa north-northeastward into the
   greater Huntsville vicinity as of 250 pm CDT.  The thunderstorms
   have developed along a cold front bisecting the TN Valley southward
   to the the LA/MS Gulf Coast.  A theta-e axis extends northward from
   Mobile Bay immediately ahead of the broken band of storms into parts
   of northeast AL.  KBMX and KHTX VAD data show moderate westerly flow
   around 3-4 km AGL (30-35 kt) above a heated boundary layer. 
   Forecast soundings show relatively modest lapse rates but the lowest
   1 km lapse rates have become relatively steep.  The forecast
   sounding wind profile denotes a hodograph favoring multicellular
   storms with veer-backing tendency and no speed shear in the
   mid-level layer.  As a result, downdrafts will likely remain fairly
   disorganized except on a localized basis where a few stronger
   water-loaded pulses may occur.  Therefore only an isolated risk for
   wind damage may occur with the stronger gusts (40-55 mph).  This
   activity will likely diminish during the evening coincident with
   boundary layer stabilization.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 09/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34818691 34818594 32938678 32148758 32258851 34818691 

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Page last modified: September 28, 2020
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