|Mesoscale Discussion 1722|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020
Areas affected...central and northern AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281956Z - 282200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few stronger thunderstorms are forecast through 5pm CDT.
Peak gusts primarily between 40-55 mph are forecast on a localized
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and 7 km CAPPI imagery show thunderstorms
intensifying southwest of Tuscaloosa north-northeastward into the
greater Huntsville vicinity as of 250 pm CDT. The thunderstorms
have developed along a cold front bisecting the TN Valley southward
to the the LA/MS Gulf Coast. A theta-e axis extends northward from
Mobile Bay immediately ahead of the broken band of storms into parts
of northeast AL. KBMX and KHTX VAD data show moderate westerly flow
around 3-4 km AGL (30-35 kt) above a heated boundary layer.
Forecast soundings show relatively modest lapse rates but the lowest
1 km lapse rates have become relatively steep. The forecast
sounding wind profile denotes a hodograph favoring multicellular
storms with veer-backing tendency and no speed shear in the
mid-level layer. As a result, downdrafts will likely remain fairly
disorganized except on a localized basis where a few stronger
water-loaded pulses may occur. Therefore only an isolated risk for
wind damage may occur with the stronger gusts (40-55 mph). This
activity will likely diminish during the evening coincident with
boundary layer stabilization.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 34818691 34818594 32938678 32148758 32258851 34818691
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