Mesoscale Discussion 1725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Alabama to central Georgia and the
   Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291909Z - 292115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will continue to spread across
   portions of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of the Carolinas through the
   afternoon hours. A few stronger to severe thunderstorms are possible
   and will mainly pose a damaging wind threat. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites across AL, GA, and SC
   show widespread thunderstorm development as temperatures warm into
   the mid to upper 80s (and even low 90s in some locations) within a
   very moist environment (mid to upper 70s dewpoints), resulting in
   the erosion of any lingering SBCIN. Recent RAP mesoanalysis
   estimates suggests that portions of southeast AL into southwest and
   central GA currently have the more conducive environment for strong
   to severe thunderstorms with MLLCLs between 1-2 km, theta-e deficits
   above 30 K, and SBCAPE approaching 3000 J/kg. Very weak
   mid/upper-level flow will continue to favor pulse cellular
   convection and multi-cell clusters with relatively short longevity.
   However, these thermodynamic conditions should be favorable for
   strong downburst winds that may reach 50-60 mph. 

   To the northeast across northeast GA and SC, more linear convection
   has developed along a residual outflow boundary with consolidating
   cold pools noted in regional velocity data. While the thermodynamic
   environment is not currently as favorable for strong/severe
   downbursts as further southwest, continued daytime heating should
   gradually improve low-level lapse rates through mid/late afternoon,
   resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat. However, given the
   poor deep-layer wind shear, the overall severity of these
   lines/clusters will remain limited and precludes watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31128345 30868398 30838441 30928509 31138561 31458605
               31818629 32358625 32808606 33078548 33208494 33298450
               33378411 33758351 34138295 34828222 35168178 35318125
               35198063 34948037 34518034 33898063 33208125 32588167
               32188213 31838256 31578291 31308323 31128345