Mesoscale Discussion 1726
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

   Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and
   northern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 291938Z - 292145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in
   the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast
   Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently
   anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by
   the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH
   River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late
   morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional
   reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for
   consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold
   pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start
   of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the
   southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming
   hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently
   on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs
   are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be
   sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak
   low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread
   southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some
   degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the
   potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a
   coherent line can become organized.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35568771 35908776 36088729 36158658 35998604 35988587
               34858414 34668390 34418384 34108392 33808427 33728463
               33678503 33688555 33698611 33918650 35568771