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Mesoscale Discussion 1734
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1734
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

   Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of the
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 140725Z - 140900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm or two, posing some risk for
   severe hail and wind, appears possible through about 3-4 AM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...Synoptic forcing for ascent appears weak to negligible.
   However, relatively moist southeasterly/easterly low-level upslope
   flow, aided by lift associated with a southward advancing
   convectively generated outflow boundary appear to be contributing to
   recent thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity.  Some
   further intensification appears possible during the next hour or so,
   supported by inflow of boundary layer air still characterized by
   CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg.  In the presence of strong deep-layer
   shear, due to pronounced veering of winds with height beneath 20-25+
   kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, one or two supercell structures
   appears possible.  As activity tends to propagate
   south-southeastward, it may pose a risk for at least marginally
   severe hail and locally strong surface gusts, before waning after

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/14/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37070416 36840281 35690275 35280360 35990420 36310446

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