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Mesoscale Discussion 1735
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1735
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

   Areas affected...portions of eastern SC...southern AL/GA...the
   western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141838Z - 142045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts will be possible through the
   afternoon from the central Gulf Coast vicinity northeast toward
   eastern South Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
   along a southward-sagging cold front. Temperatures well into the 90s
   and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s have resulted in moderate to
   strong instability, with 18z mesoanalysis indicating 2000-3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Effective shear is weak across the region and will limit
   sustained organized features. However, PW values over 2 inches and
   low level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km will support sporadic
   strong downbursts. A couple of locally damaging gusts will
   especially be possible if any clusters begin to surge/forward
   propagate through storm mergers and/or along outflow interactions.
   Overall, the threat will remain transient and a watch is not
   expected.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/14/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31978781 32148575 32528407 32718322 33138133 33867958
               33717907 33417898 32987937 32418000 31788076 30668147
               30538380 30328574 30318662 30448743 30758780 31118810
               31438829 31798825 31978781 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2019
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