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Mesoscale Discussion 1737
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1737
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northeast IN into northwest OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142010Z - 142145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms could produce marginal hail and
   gusty winds through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have increased in intensity this
   afternoon from Marshall to Allen counties in IN and Van Wert County
   in OH. The most intense cell currently is near Fort Wayne, where a
   cell has interacted with an outflow boundary from a previous
   decaying cell. This cell has shown some weak rotation, which has
   probably been enhanced by the interaction with the aforementioned
   boundary. Some strong gusts and marginal hail are possible with
   strongest cells this afternoon given around 30 kt effective shear
   and a weak mid/upper level impulse migrating through westerly deep
   layer flow. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor and limit severe
   hail potential. Steep low level lapse rates and a deeply-mixed
   sub-cloud layer will favor some stronger downdrafts and gusty winds.
   Overall, the threat should remain limited in intensity and coverage
   and a watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 08/14/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41638654 41658622 41338515 40908383 40548322 40338326
               40108359 40188419 40658542 41188634 41468661 41638654 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2019
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