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Mesoscale Discussion 1739
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1739
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

   Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming and western
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150214Z - 150345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue developing southeast through
   northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota this evening, posing a
   risk for isolated large hail and downburst winds. At this time it
   appears storm coverage will probably remain too sparse for a WW, but
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a few storms persist over southeast
   MT, with the strongest storm having supercell characteristics
   approaching the northeast WY border. The downstream atmosphere is
   moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. A modest increase in
   convective inhibition is occurring with respect to surface-based
   parcels with onset of nocturnal cooling. However, a few storms may
   persist with slightly elevated updrafts having inflow rooted just
   above the surface. Thus isolated storms could persist into a portion
   of western SD and extreme northeast WY and pose a threat for large
   hail and downburst winds this evening. Stronger forcing accompanying
   a shortwave trough moving through eastern MT should remain north of
   this region. This along with the absence of a substantial low-level
   jet suggest storm coverage will probably remain very isolated.

   ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43360396 44120500 44760594 45560411 44640295 43530271
               43360396 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2019
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