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Mesoscale Discussion 1740
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1740
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112042Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Overall severe threat appears limited. A brief tornado
   cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete, low-topped convective cells, exhibiting
   transient low-level rotation, are in the process of weakening while
   crossing a warm front which has become nearly stationary over the
   past couple of hours. North of the warm front, mostly cloudy skies
   persist, with temperatures mainly in the lower 70s, with upper 60s
   dewpoints, yielding under 500 J/kg MLCAPE per latest Mesoanalysis.
   Convection is expected to continue weakening as cells progress
   further into North Carolina. Nonetheless, a brief tornado remains
   possible with the more organized storms crossing the boundary over
   the next couple of hours, particularly with a transient supercell in
   Horry County SC, moving towards Columbus/Brunswick County NC. Given
   the very localized, short-term nature of the severe threat, a WW
   issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 10/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35067970 35527963 35467898 35137798 34837722 34417719
               34047759 33807816 33707869 33747907 34117947 35067970 

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Page last modified: October 11, 2020
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