Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020
Areas affected...Portions of southern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 112042Z - 112245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Overall severe threat appears limited. A brief tornado
cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete, low-topped convective cells, exhibiting
transient low-level rotation, are in the process of weakening while
crossing a warm front which has become nearly stationary over the
past couple of hours. North of the warm front, mostly cloudy skies
persist, with temperatures mainly in the lower 70s, with upper 60s
dewpoints, yielding under 500 J/kg MLCAPE per latest Mesoanalysis.
Convection is expected to continue weakening as cells progress
further into North Carolina. Nonetheless, a brief tornado remains
possible with the more organized storms crossing the boundary over
the next couple of hours, particularly with a transient supercell in
Horry County SC, moving towards Columbus/Brunswick County NC. Given
the very localized, short-term nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not anticipated.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35067970 35527963 35467898 35137798 34837722 34417719
34047759 33807816 33707869 33747907 34117947 35067970