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Mesoscale Discussion 1743
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1743
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas affected...Southeast LA and vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141732Z - 141900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of supercells and an isolated
   tornado will persist through the afternoon, but a watch does not
   appear necessary at this time.

   DISCUSSION...On the far eastern fringes of weakening Tropical Storm
   Nicholas, there has been a recent uptick in supercell structures
   within a broken southeast-northwest oriented band.  This convection
   is just east of the more persistent clouds/rain that are reducing
   buoyancy, and close to the east edge of the somewhat stronger
   flow/hodograph curvature noted in the LIX VWP.  The environment is
   sufficient for occasional rotating storms in the eastern convective
   bands of Nicolas, though the threat for more than an isolated/brief
   tornado is still in question given only slow expected changes to the
   environment.  Thus, this area will continue to be monitored, but a
   tornado watch does not appear necessary at this time.

   ..Thompson.. 09/14/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29078937 29708983 30099040 30439046 30649028 30648987
               30328930 29688865 29248860 28998900 29078937 

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