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Mesoscale Discussion 1744
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1744
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Far Nebraska...Far Northwest
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

   Valid 120428Z - 120600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat is expected to persist
   across southwest Iowa and far northwest Missouri for another one to
   two hours. Weather watch issuance is unlikely beyond the expiration
   of Ww 500.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
   across western Iowa extending south-southwestward into far southeast
   Nebraska. The RAP has weak instability ahead of the line with MLCAPE
   of 500 to 1000 J/kg. This combined with strengthening low-level flow
   will support continued thunderstorm development over the next few
   hours. The Des Moines WSR-88D VWP currently has 60 kt of 0-6 km
   shear which will be enough to continue an isolated severe threat a
   little while longer with the stronger cells embedded in the line. A
   few damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of
   the line as it moves eastward across southwest Iowa and far
   northwest Missouri. However, as instability continues to weaken
   during the early overnight period, the severe threat will become
   increasingly marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 10/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   42469435 42369485 42059510 41079543 40319581 39979575
               39869556 39819505 40029457 41049423 42059394 42469435 

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Page last modified: October 12, 2020
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