|Mesoscale Discussion 1745|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1745
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020
Areas affected...east-central MN...northwest WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142123Z - 142330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe gusts are possible as
storms intensify over the next few hours with the wind risk
persisting until perhaps 7pm CDT.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms
developing near the MN/WI border in between Duluth and Minneapolis.
Cloud breaks ahead of the developing storms have occurred during the
past hour and surface temperatures have warmed to near 60 F near the
MN/WI border with upper 50s F extending past Hayward, WI.
The 0-3 km lapse rates have become become steep (7.5 degrees C/km)
per latest objective mesoanalysis and KMPX VAD indicates 40-45 kt
2km AGL flow. The left exit region of a powerful upper jet is
favorably positioned over the Upper Midwest, which will favor
large-scale ascent through the early evening across northwest WI as
the surface low near Duluth develops eastward.
Given the relatively steep lapse rates coupled with the adequately
strong flow in a weak buoyancy regime, it seems plausible a focused
risk for isolated strong to locally severe gusts may develop through
6-7 pm CDT. Storms will likely weaken after sunset coincident with
this activity moving into northern WI where cooler surface
temperatures currently reside.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 46229303 46339198 46049099 45559087 45029126 44959285
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