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Mesoscale Discussion 1745
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1745
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0423 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

   Areas affected...east-central MN...northwest WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142123Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe gusts are possible as
   storms intensify over the next few hours with the wind risk
   persisting until perhaps 7pm CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows thunderstorms
   developing near the MN/WI border in between Duluth and Minneapolis. 
   Cloud breaks ahead of the developing storms have occurred during the
   past hour and surface temperatures have warmed to near 60 F near the
   MN/WI border with upper 50s F extending past Hayward, WI.  

   The 0-3 km lapse rates have become become steep (7.5 degrees C/km)
   per latest objective mesoanalysis and KMPX VAD indicates 40-45 kt
   2km AGL flow.  The left exit region of a powerful upper jet is
   favorably positioned over the Upper Midwest, which will favor
   large-scale ascent through the early evening across northwest WI as
   the surface low near Duluth develops eastward.  

   Given the relatively steep lapse rates coupled with the adequately
   strong flow in a weak buoyancy regime, it seems plausible a focused
   risk for isolated strong to locally severe gusts may develop through
   6-7 pm CDT.  Storms will likely weaken after sunset coincident with
   this activity moving into northern WI where cooler surface
   temperatures currently reside.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 10/14/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46229303 46339198 46049099 45559087 45029126 44959285

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