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Mesoscale Discussion 1746
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1746
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas affected...Central Missouri into Central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142018Z - 142215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase along the cold front into
   early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with
   large hail being more isolated. A watch is not expected, though
   trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating along the cold front has
   produced a deepening field of cumulus and isolated thunderstorms in
   central Missouri into central Illinois. Some additional, modest
   mid-level ascent, primarily focused in Illinois, could promote
   additional development later this afternoon. Deep-layer shear in the
   warm sector is weak and should generally remain near 25 kts. The
   strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps
   isolated large hail. Should storms congeal, a more organized
   damaging wind threat would develop. Lack of greater shear and
   mid-level forcing will likely keep the threat marginal. Trends will
   be monitored, but no watch is expected this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40798886 41308766 40858724 40548712 39408773 38818877
               37989086 37879228 37329423 37569453 38119445 38989215
               39499079 40798886 

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Page last modified: September 14, 2021
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