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Mesoscale Discussion 1747
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1747
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas of southern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142040Z - 142215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail are possible this
   afternoon into this evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
   needed in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...An expanding/deepening CU field in the vicinity of a
   southward-sagging cold front has been noted over
   southwest/south-central KS over the past hour or two. Strong heating
   and dewpoints in the low 60s amid steep midlevel lapse rates is
   resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Large-scale forcing for ascent
   remains weak over the region, but weak convergence along the surface
   boundary should be sufficient for a few storms to develop over the
   next few hours. This area is on the southern fringes of stronger
   shear, with effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Small, but
   curved low-level hodographs, becoming straight/elongated above 3 km,
   suggest splitting supercells  producing large hail are possible.
   Convective trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed in the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 09/14/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38070194 38240005 38279823 38029704 37669677 37429672
               37059687 36899715 36929859 36920083 36910182 37090223
               37900218 38070194 

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