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Mesoscale Discussion 1752
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1752
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

   Areas affected...southeast LA...coastal MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150949Z - 151145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Transient/weak mesocyclones embedded within a rain shield
   will potentially be capable of a tornado risk for the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...KLIX radar imagery over the past couple of hours has
   shown an increase in the number and intensity of low-level
   mesocyclones over southeast LA and adjacent coastal waters south of
   the MS coast.  KLIX VAD data shows a supportive hodograph for
   low-level rotation and surface observations and RAP forecast
   soundings indicate a very moist/weakly buoyant environment.  As
   such, transient supercell structure will probably continue in the
   short term and potentially pose a weak/short-lived tornado threat
   with any more persistent/intense circulations.  The overall
   magnitude and isolated character of the tornado risk will likely
   preclude a tornado watch issuance.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 09/15/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   29938996 30308981 30618921 30518837 30228825 29638881
               29638945 29938996 

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Page last modified: September 15, 2021
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