Mesoscale Discussion 1764
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...extreme southeast IA...northeast MO...and
   west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311601Z - 311730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic hail to around 1 inch diameter and locally strong
   gusts around 40-50 mph are possible the next couple of hours. A
   watch is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection in a modest low-level warm
   advection regime will likely continue the next couple of hours
   across the discussion area. The airmass directly downstream from
   thunderstorm clusters across southeast Iowa has been impacted by
   overnight/morning convection. Temperatures behind the outflow from
   earlier convection are currently in the upper 60s to low 70s. While
   modest instability remains given surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
   to low 70s F, low-level inhibition will likely remain as the airmass
   only slowly recovers through early afternoon. Current expectation is
   that modest instability but favorable vertical shear will continue
   to support isolated strong (but likely elevated) convection. This
   activity will mainly pose a risk for hail up to 1 inch diameter and
   locally strong gusts around 40-50 mph. A severe thunderstorm watch
   is not currently expected.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40929190 40429092 39779021 39379028 39149058 39309129
               39749224 40139286 40519322 40779316 40959309 41029278
               40929190