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Mesoscale Discussion 1767
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1767
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far
   southeast Alabama and northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 311804Z - 312000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by
   mid-afternoon across southern Georgia and adjacent portions of far
   southeast Alabama into northern Florida. Weak wind shear will limit
   the overall severe weather potential and preclude the need for a
   watch, but sporadic damaging winds will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is well underway across far
   southeast AL into southern GA as surface-based parcels begin to hit
   their convective temperatures within a zone of weak low-level ascent
   associated with a diffuse surface trough axis. Recent RAP
   mesoanalysis estimates suggest that SBCAPE values upwards of
   4000-5000 J/kg are in place across southern GA, which should support
   multiple intense updrafts. However, regional VWPs are sampling very
   weak mid and upper-level winds (generally 15 knots or less), which
   will promote single cells initially with a tendency for clustering
   as convection pushes slowly southeast through the afternoon. The
   lack of appreciable shear will limit the potential for a more
   widespread/organized severe threat, but the extreme buoyancy, high
   PWAT values (generally around 2.0 inches), and steepening low-level
   lapse rates will promote strong downbursts with sporadic damaging
   wind gusts (generally between 45-60 mph). A somewhat more focused
   corridor of damaging wind potential may emerge across southern GA
   later this afternoon if a more consolidated cluster can become
   established; however, such a cluster would primarily be driven by
   cold-pool propagation, which has inherently low predictability. As
   such, watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

   LAT...LON   32608495 32758407 32588312 32528295 32068172 31888153
               31668146 31338147 31008159 30638193 30378256 30288347
               30288350 30298380 30348397 31328535 31628548 31968548
               32188536 32478515 32608495 

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Page last modified: July 31, 2024
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