|Mesoscale Discussion 1772|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1772
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021
Areas affected...far eastern KS into western and north-central MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508...
Valid 202325Z - 210100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 508
SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and hail will continue to pose a threat
across WW 508 the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A couple of bands of strong to severe thunderstorms
have developed near the eastward-advancing cold front this evening
from far eastern KS into western and north-central MO. Convective
mode has tended to be clusters and line segments, though a couple of
more discrete supercells also are persisting. One such cell produced
several severe hail reports in Johnson County KS the past hour or so
and any more discrete convection will continue to pose a threat for
severe hail for another couple of hours.
Large-scale ascent is more modest across the region compared to
further north across IA/MN/WI, but MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and
effective shear magnitudes of 30-40 kt will continue to support
organized structures developing along the cold front through the
evening. In addition to the hail threat with more discrete cells,
bowing segments also may produce damaging gusts. The overall severe
threat should wane by around 03z as boundary-layer inhibition
increases and a lack of a stronger low level jet precludes more
intense/well-organized linear convection from materializing.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 39119507 40549381 40539241 39259244 38909253 38269269
37829355 37649415 37709517 39119507
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