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Mesoscale Discussion 1851
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1851
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE
   Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into
   east-central MT

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 130958Z - 131600Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches
   per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are
   also possible with strong/gusty winds.

   DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor
   satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the
   central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the
   back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level
   frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a
   mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will
   develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over
   the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with
   time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally
   28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low
   should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the
   saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest
   high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches
   per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates
   possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced
   visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong
   pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a
   surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this
   morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at
   KDGW in eastern WY.

   ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42910372 41880397 41810465 42120527 42820597 44540615
               45750611 46820566 47510489 47660416 47460363 46330348
               45170341 44030337 43740364 42910372 

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Page last modified: October 13, 2021
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