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Mesoscale Discussion 1853
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK...far eastern
   KS...extreme northwestern AR...and western/central MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131234Z - 131430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
   morning. Watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to progress eastward this
   morning from parts of central into northeastern OK, southeastern KS,
   and western MO. The airmass ahead of this activity is only weakly
   unstable, with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. But, strong
   low-level and deep-layer shear still exist across the warm sector.
   Occasional strong/gusty winds will remain possible this morning for
   a couple more hours, although recent observations from the OK
   Mesonet and various ASOS in southeastern KS show winds remaining
   well below severe levels. The tornado potential appears a bit more
   limited owing to the 0-1-km bulk shear vector remaining largely
   parallel to the ongoing line of storms. Even so, occasional
   protrusions with weak embedded low-level circulations have recently
   been noted in the line across central OK, and a brief tornado also
   appears possible given the strength of the low-level flow. This line
   should gradually weaken with eastward extent later this morning, and
   the overall severe threat currently appears too isolated/marginal
   for watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34989696 36079626 36999546 37769517 38849448 38979423
               38979336 38679278 37339333 36109448 34999607 34799683

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