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Mesoscale Discussion 1865
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MD 1865 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1865
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

   Areas affected...Southern AR....Northern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 121952Z - 122145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across
   southern AR and northern MS over the next few hours. Some strong to
   severe storms are possible, with damaging gusts and hail as the main
   severe threats. A tornado or two is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery across southern AR and
   northern MS continues to show an expanding and deepening cumulus
   field, with several instances of convective initiation across
   southern AR. This expansion/deepening is occurring amid strong
   diurnal heating and resulting air mass destabilization. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates that little to no convective inhibition
   remains and  MLCAPE is around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. 

   Expectation is for gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage as
   low-level convergence ahead of the approaching cold front persists.
   Given its proximity to the front, thunderstorm development currently
   appears most likely across southern AR. However, southern AR lies
   within a corridor of slightly weaker mid-level flow, resulting in
   less deep-layer shear here than areas farther east across northern
   MS. Even so, isolated supercells capable of damaging gusts and/or
   hail are possible. 

   Farther east, stronger mid-level flow results in greater deep-layer
   shear. Additionally, a westward-moving outflow boundary is advancing
   across northeast MS, with southeasterly surface winds in its wake.
   This results in stronger low-level shear and a greater potential for
   supercells capable of all severe hazards, including a tornado or
   two, if storms can initiate and persist.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/12/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34119376 34779317 34849046 34838906 33448916 33199321

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