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Mesoscale Discussion 1881
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MD 1881 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1881
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0425 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

   Areas affected...northeast OH...far western PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212125Z - 212330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The tornado risk will likely continue for another hour or
   so (thru 600-630 pm EDT) and decrease towards sunset and likely be
   very limited after sunset.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from Cleveland's 88D shows a broken band
   of supercells immediately ahead of a strong mid-level vorticity
   maximum moving east across the southern Great Lakes.  Surface
   temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 60s with dewpoints near 60
   F.  RAP forecast soundings indicate 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE with a
   relatively straight hodograph yielding 150-225 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. 
   The current expectation is for a continuation of the tornado risk
   for the next hour or so given the sufficient buoyancy in place
   across northeast OH.  However, as the boundary layer begins to cool
   this evening towards sunset and temperatures fall into the 60-62 deg
   range, storm-scale rotation will gradually become more intermittent
   and less intense.  The tornado risk will correspondingly lessen as
   supercell rotation weakens.  The tornado risk will further diminish
   after sunset as cooling further increases convective inhibition and
   supercell rotation becomes more marginalized.

   ..Smith/Dial.. 10/21/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40878149 41618112 41758020 41168008 40248090 40088214

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