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Mesoscale Discussion 1892
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MD 1892 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1892
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0730 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

   Areas affected...south central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300030Z - 300130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue through south central Missouri during
   the next couple hours, posing a risk for isolated strong wind gusts
   before weakening further toward mid evening. Due to anticipated
   limited spacial/temporal extent of the threat, a WW will probably
   not be needed south of WW 627.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing along an outflow boundary
   moving south through central MO at around 25 kt. This activity will
   soon cross into the Springfield county warning area where based on
   the 00Z RAOB, the atmosphere remains moderately unstable with 2500
   J/kg MLCAPE. These storms may continue to pose a threat for isolated
   strong wind gusts through 02Z. However, with the low-level jet
   evolving well west of this region, the primary forcing mechanism
   will be convergence along the southward-advancing gust front. This
   relatively shallow forcing may not be sufficient to sustain deep
   convection into the late evening given increasing convective
   inhibition associated with a stabilizing surface layer.

   ..Dial/Goss.. 08/30/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38559297 38229238 37949298 38199340 38559297 

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Page last modified: August 30, 2019
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