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Mesoscale Discussion 1893
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1893
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western into central Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

   Valid 242225Z - 250030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms, including tornadoes,
   continues across Tornado Watch 0531 in central MO, and is expected
   to persist through the remainder of the evening. The greatest short
   term threat is associated with storms immediately ahead of the cold
   front and in proximity to the warm front, though the severe threat
   may increase further south with time.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple sustained semi-discrete supercell structures
   are in progress across portions of north-central into central MO
   immediately ahead of a cold front and within proximity to a diffuse
   warm front. In addition, storms are also attempting to mature
   further south along the cold front into southwest MO, as well as
   with a second confluence zone east of SGF. Tornadoes have been
   reported over the past few hours across northern/central MO with
   storms closer to the warm front, where latest METAR observations
   depict more backed surface flow. These storms have the greatest
   threat of continued tornado potential in the short term. 

   The low-level jet is expected to intensify going into the evening
   hours across portions of central into eastern MO. 2154Z SGF VWP
   showed over 200 m2/s2 SRH, and these values are expected to
   gradually increase this evening. As such, a tornado threat may
   develop with any sustained supercell structures that manage to
   develop in southern MO. In addition, severe hail and damaging
   rear-flank downdraft winds may also accompany any mature supercells
   as well.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/24/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37229123 37009191 36959239 37079369 37299445 37989380
               38819329 39769332 40229324 40349240 40219189 40039150
               39729130 39009083 38469093 37809119 37229123 

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