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Mesoscale Discussion 1924
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MD 1924 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1019 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern NY...VT...NH...Western
   ME...MA...CT...and Far Northeast PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041519Z - 041715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the
   next several hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary severe
   threat but a couple tornadoes are also possible. A watch will
   eventually be needed for portions of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from SLK
   (in far northern NY) southwestward across central NY to just east of
   BFD (in far north-central PA). Radar trends have shown gradually
   increasing intensity of the cells along the front in south-central
   NY as they move into a diurnally destabilizing and modestly buoyant
   air mass downstream. Ongoing moisture advection has lead to an 2-4
   degree increase in dewpoints downstream across the Hudson Valley and
   this general trends is expected to continue, leading to air-mass
   destabilization ahead of the front as far north as northeast NY, VT,
   NH, and western ME. 

   At the same time, strengthening large-scale forcing for ascent
   attendant to the shortwave trough moving into the Northeast will
   augment the frontal forcing already occurring. The combination of
   this increased forcing for ascent and air-mass destabilization is
   expected to result in expanding thunderstorm coverage over the next
   few hours. Even with the modest buoyancy, strong vertical shear will
   provide a kinematic environment supportive of organized storms.
   Primary threat will be damaging wind gusts associated with bowing
   line segments. However, given the southerly flow across southeastern
   NY and southern New England, some tornado threat also exists,
   especially with any more discrete cells ahead of the front. A watch
   will likely be needed by early afternoon, particularly over eastern
   NY and New England.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/04/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41747693 42387681 43827469 44847352 44597056 42547148
               41537287 41317494 41747693 

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Page last modified: September 04, 2019
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