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Mesoscale Discussion 1956
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MD 1956 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1956
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Wisconsin and southern Lower
   Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111748Z - 111945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective coverage along a cold front in central
   Wisconsin and central Lower Michigan will increase in the next two
   hours. Damaging winds will the the primary threat with marginally
   severe hail and an isolated tornado possible. A WW is possible in
   the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Mid-level ascent continues to increase across southern
   Wisconsin and southern Lower Michigan with the approach of a
   shortwave trough. Despite cloud cover across Wisconsin, 1-minute
   visible satellite imagery shows increasing agitated cumulus along
   the cold front with convection also increasing in central Lower
   Michigan where surface heating has been stronger. 1500-2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE will exist this afternoon in areas that have remained
   relatively cloud free. Stronger convection is likely to occur in
   Wisconsin with the better upper-level support, though stronger
   surface heating in Michigan may allow more isolated activity to
   develop prior to the shortwave arriving. Given deep-layer shear
   (effectively 30-40 kts) parallel to the boundary, congealing cold
   pools and upscale growth is likely to occur quickly making damaging
   winds the primary threat. Marginally severe hail may occur in
   stronger cells, but modest mid-level lapse rates should keep
   coverage of larger hail minimal. While the risk of a tornado will
   remain low, a 30 kt 850 mb jet moving through the area will enlarge
   low-level hodographs enough that an isolated tornado may occur early
   in the convective cycle before upscale growth/storm interactions.
   With time, the convection will reinforce the cold front and the
   boundary will sag southward. Given the expected storm coverage and
   potential for damaging wind gusts, a WW is possible within the next
   hour or two.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
   ARX...

   LAT...LON   43039028 43498999 44038699 43348387 42748262 41758326
               41508379 41898659 42148875 42409000 43039028 

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Page last modified: September 11, 2019
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