Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1957
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1957 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

   Areas affected...Far eastern Ohio...western/central
   Pennsylvania...Portions of Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111908Z - 112115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage from water-loaded downbursts possible
   this afternoon. No WW is planned.

   DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating of very moist airmass has lead
   to the development of a few clusters of storms in eastern Ohio and
   along the Blue Ridge. So far, convection has remained generally
   shallow; however, storm intensity will likely increase as
   temperatures across the region warm into the upper-80s and low-90s
   F. Deep-layer flow is uniformly weak meaning storms will be only
   loosely organized. The main threat from this activity will be wind
   damage from localized, water-loaded downdrafts as low-level lapse
   rates are quite steep. Any more organized threat from this activity
   would be conditional on cold pools merging and propagating eastward.
   Without upper-level support, this activity should wane at sunset and
   will not likely reach the coast given the stable marine layer
   pushing inland. No WW is planned.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 09/11/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40868144 41438119 42047995 41887810 41507719 40237636
               39067628 38327656 37817692 37717737 37507793 37347868
               37337932 37337985 37848020 38538011 39278020 39938058
               40358111 40868144 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: September 11, 2019
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities