|Mesoscale Discussion 1957|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1957
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019
Areas affected...Far eastern Ohio...western/central
Pennsylvania...Portions of Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111908Z - 112115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage from water-loaded downbursts possible
this afternoon. No WW is planned.
DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating of very moist airmass has lead
to the development of a few clusters of storms in eastern Ohio and
along the Blue Ridge. So far, convection has remained generally
shallow; however, storm intensity will likely increase as
temperatures across the region warm into the upper-80s and low-90s
F. Deep-layer flow is uniformly weak meaning storms will be only
loosely organized. The main threat from this activity will be wind
damage from localized, water-loaded downdrafts as low-level lapse
rates are quite steep. Any more organized threat from this activity
would be conditional on cold pools merging and propagating eastward.
Without upper-level support, this activity should wane at sunset and
will not likely reach the coast given the stable marine layer
pushing inland. No WW is planned.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40868144 41438119 42047995 41887810 41507719 40237636
39067628 38327656 37817692 37717737 37507793 37347868
37337932 37337985 37848020 38538011 39278020 39938058
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