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Mesoscale Discussion 1968
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1968
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 AM CST Sun Nov 20 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of western/northern New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 201240Z - 201815Z

   SUMMARY...A heavy lake-enhanced snow band will likely persist
   through the day, with rates of 3-4 inches per hour possible closer
   to the lake, and 1-2 inches per hour possible farther east into
   parts of the Mohawk Valley by late morning.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing lake-enhanced snow band over Lake Ontario
   and adjacent portions of western/northern New York is expected to
   undergo some reorientation through the day today, with low-midlevel
   flow gradually veering to more of a west to west-northwesterly
   direction with time as the deep longwave trough over the region
   shifts eastward. Steep tropospheric lapse rates and very cold
   temperatures aloft (-15 C at 850 mb and -27 C at 700 mb on 12Z BUF
   sounding) will continue to support sufficient instability for the
   maintenance of locally intense snow rates of 3+ inches per hour. As
   the band takes on a more west-northwest to east-southeast
   orientation, the heaviest snow is expected to shift gradually
   southward across parts of Oswego, southern Lewis, and northern
   Oneida Counties. Favorable instability and surface convergence could
   also support localized rates of 1-2 inches per hour along the
   eastward extension of the snow band into parts of the Mohawk Valley
   by late morning. 

   In addition to the heavy snow rates, increasing low-level flow will
   support strong winds (with gusts in the 30-45 mph range), which will
   exacerbate low-visibility concerns in areas that experience the
   heavier snow rates.

   ..Dean.. 11/20/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43587696 43647585 43587511 43367473 43127453 42927461
               43047605 43207710 43457728 43587696 

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Page last modified: November 20, 2022
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